Presentations | Request Letter | Organization Chart | Roles and Responsibilities | Study Workplan

The NPC is an advisory committee to the Secretary of Energy and is responsible for:

• Agreeing to undertake the study requested by the Secretary
• Reviewing and approving a draft report prior to its being submitted to the Secretary as the NPC’s advice on the subject.

2. Committee on Global Oil and Gas

The Committee is established by the NPC Chair and will be responsible for:

• Assisting the NPC by supervising the conduct of the study and preparing a proposed response to the Secretary of Energy
• Reviewing and approving a plan for conducting the study – proposed Scope, Organization, and Timetable
• Monitoring the status and progress of the study and briefing the NPC
• Reviewing and approving a draft report prior to its being submitted to the NPC as the NPC’s proposed advice on the subject.

2.A. Executive Committee

The Chair, Government Cochair, and four Vice Chairs (Demand, Supply, Technology, and Geopolitics & Policy) of the Committee are the study leadership and will be an Executive Committee responsible for:

• Designating the Chairs and Government Cochairs for the study’s working groups – Coordinating Subcommittee and Task Groups
• Providing administrative oversight for the study’s working groups
• Briefing the Committee on the status and progress of the study
• Presenting the study’s draft report to the Committee for its approval.

2.B. Committee Members

Serve on the Committee and will be responsible for:

• Assisting in the Committee’s responsibilities described above
• Ensuring a broad and diverse make-up to address the variety of study issues
• Providing resources for the study’s working groups – members and information.

3. Coordinating Subcommittee (CSC)

The Coordinating Subcommittee is established by the NPC Chair and will be responsible for:

• Assisting the Committee on Global Oil and Gas by coordinating the conduct of the study analyses and preparation of a draft study report
• Developing a plan for conducting the study – proposed Scope, Organization, and Timetable
• Monitoring the status and progress of the study on a monthly basis and briefing the Committee as needed
• Reviewing and approving a draft report prior to its being submitted to the Committee.

3.A. CSC Leaders

The Chair and Government Cochair of the CSC, the four Chairs of the Task Groups (Demand, Supply, Technology, and Geopolitics & Policy), and their Assistants will be a CSC Leaders group responsible for:

• Providing administrative coordination for the study’s working groups on a weekly basis
• Briefing the Committee and Executive Committee on the status and progress of the study
• Assisting in the presentation of the study’s draft report to the Committee for its approval.

3.B. CSC Members

Serve on the Coordinating Subcommittee and will be responsible for:

• Assisting in the CSC’s responsibilities described above
• Providing resources and advice for the study’s Task Groups and Subgroups – members and information.
• Ensuring a broad and diverse make-up to address the variety of study issues
• Assisting on specific topic area of the study (“Contact Member”) to whom Task Group and Subgroup members and others can come with questions or for guidance between CSC meetings.

4. Task Groups (TG)

The Task Groups are established by the NPC Chair and will be responsible for:

• Assisting the CSC by conducting analyses on specific topic areas and preparing parts of the draft study report
• Developing work plans for conducting analyses of each TG’s topic area
• Monitoring the status and progress of the TG and Subgroup assignments on a monthly basis
• Reviewing and approving a draft TG report prior to its being submitted to the CSC.

4.A. TG Leaders

A Chair, Government Cochair, and Assistant to the Chair will provide leadership for each Task Group.

4.B. TG Members

Serve on a specific Task Group and will be responsible for:

• Assisting in the TG’s responsibilities described above
• Providing resources and advice for the TG’s Subgroups – members and information.
• Ensuring a broad and diverse make-up to address the TG’s topic areas
• Serving as a Subgroup leader or member.

4.C. Subgroups

Task Groups may establish informal Subgroups:

• Responsible for developing or collecting data or information for a specific topic area of a TG’s assignments
• Subgroups may use focus groups or expert panels to gather input
• Subgroups may consist of 2-3 participants to a large group
• Subgroups may work electronically or by meeting
• Subgroups may meet once or many times
• Subgroups work products will be submitted and discussed at TG meetings prior to inclusion in the study.

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NATIONAL PETROLEUM COUNCIL
FUTURE TRANSPORTATION FUELS STUDY
STUDY WORK PLAN: SCOPE, ORGANIZATION, AND TIMETABLE

By letter dated October 5, 2005, Secretary of Energy Bodman requested that the National Petroleum Council undertake a study on the ability of global oil and gas supply to keep pace with growing world demand. Specifically, the Secretary stated that key questions to be addressed in the study may include:

• What does the future hold for global oil and natural gas supply?
  
  
•  Can incremental oil and natural gas supply be brought on-line, on-time, and at a reasonable price to meet future demand without jeopardizing economic growth?
  
  
• What oil and gas supply strategies and/or demand-side strategies does the Council recommend the U.S. pursue to ensure greater economic stability and prosperity?

(The complete text of the Secretary’s request letter can be seen here.)

BACKGROUND 

In his address to the National Petroleum Council at the June 22, 2005 meeting, Secretary Bodman expressed his concerns about growing worldwide energy demand; the serious technical, and often political, issues in developing future petroleum reserves; and the need for greater transparency about known reserves in producer nations.  He reiterated the President’s view that “energy security is essential to maintaining our nation’s strong economic growth and ensuring our long-term prosperity.”

In further discussions with the Council leadership, the Secretary, his staff, and others in the Administration stressed the important contribution such a study could provide in informing critical energy policy decisions. The impacts on energy markets of world events and Hurricanes Katrina and Rita underscored the tightness of world supply and demand balances and the need for a better understanding of the factors affecting them.

On November 4, 2005, the NPC Agenda Committee reviewed this request and recommended that it be accepted by the NPC.  By fax ballot on December 7, 2005, the National Petroleum Council concurred in this recommendation without dissent. The first part of 2006 was devoted to identifying the study’s leadership and initial participants and developing a detailed and well thought out approach to the conduct of the study.  On June 20, the NPC Committee on Global Oil and Gas reviewed and approved the study work plan as outlined in the following sections of this paper.

STUDY SCOPE

The Secretary and Council leadership agreed to the approach of a broadly worded study request letter with the details of the scope of the study to be developed in discussions between the Department of Energy and an NPC committee established to oversee the conduct of the study and the preparation of a final report. The study’s proposed Coordinating Subcommittee, including the leaders of the Task Group, developed this study plan for consideration by the NPC Committee on Global Oil and Gas and the Department through the Secretary’s designated Government Cochair. Broadly, the study will: 

• Evaluate global energy outlook/opportunities/vulnerabilities in the context of the commodity energy marketplace, focusing on implications for the U.S.
  
  
• Evaluate global economic outlook/opportunities/vulnerabilities in the context of worldwide economic drivers and energy consumption, focusing on implications for the U.S.
  
  
• Examine the potential for and consequences of world geopolitical events that would have significant impacts on global and U.S. petroleum and natural gas supply and demand.
  
  
• Identify and assess policy options and actions the U.S. government could take to reduce the risk of such supply and demand impacts.
  
  
• Assess the broad potential of alternative energy sources under various economic and policy scenarios.
  
  
• Assess the broad potential for technology advances to increase petroleum and natural gas supply by 2030, and to support improvements in energy efficiency.
  
  
• Identify and assess U.S. policy options related to the global energy supply and demand outlook, as a subset of the global energy commodity marketplace, in order to promote sustained economic growth. 

The scope of the study’s detailed methodology is to conduct analyses, governed by antitrust guidelines, that will:

1. Assess global energy supply and demand balance to 2030 within range of outlooks

a. Assess the global energy supply outlook to 2030

    1) Discuss accuracy of forecast models
    2) Analyze publicly available historical data on supply trends
    3) Develop a range of potential global and U.S. oil and natural gas supply outlooks

b. Assess the global energy demand outlook to 2030

    1) Assess global macroeconomic framework
    2) Discuss accuracy of forecast models
    3) Analyze publicly available historical data on demand trends
    4) Develop a range of potential global and U.S. demand outlooks

2. Identify and discuss the key drivers of various available global supply and demand outlooks to 2030

a. Supply
    1) Policy initiatives that could increase access to domestic oil and natural gas resources
    2) Effective U.S. foreign policies to promote international energy access and development, as well         as a stable supply system
    3) Potential for technology advances to increase petroleum and natural gas supply by 2030, and to         support improvements in energy efficiency
    4) The potential role of alternative/renewable energy sources
    5) Assessment of means to promote stable legal and fiscal global trade systems to sustain energy         development
    6) Assessment of policy measures to minimize short-term supply disruptions
    7) Environmental considerations

b. Demand
    1) Analysis of historical data on demand responses to changes in energy costs
    2) Potential for technology advances affecting demand
    3) Potential for energy efficiency improvements
    4) Substitution for petroleum and other hydrocarbons in the overall energy mix
    5) Assessment of what forms of energy are likely to be interchangeable and what are not
    6) Demand responses to regulatory and fiscal systems
    7) Environmental considerations

3. Provide an overall assessment of the energy supply and demand position of the U.S. with a focus on opportunities, gaps, and vulnerabilities

4. Discuss policy implications and options for U.S. government officials

a. Assessment of key global geopolitical trends likely to impact oil and natural gas supply and demand

b. Identification and evaluation of policy options designed to increase supplies and to support demand growth

c. Assessment of options should consider key objectives of sustaining economic growth, promoting energy security and protecting the environment

d. Consideration of relevant lessons learned from past energy policy responses.

STUDY ORGANIZATION 

The organization that will conduct the study analyses as outlined above and prepare a draft report for the Council’s consideration, consists of:

• Committee on Global Oil and Gas
  
• Coordinating Subcommittee
  
• Task Groups
  – Demand
  – Supply
  – Technology
  – Geopolitics & Policy.

A Chair, Government Cochair, and four Vice Chairs will provide the leadership of the Committee. The Subcommittee and Task Groups will be comprised of a broad and diverse group of participants from U.S. and foreign oil and gas companies, other energy companies, service and construction companies, as well as from consumer, consultant, financial, academic, public interest, and governmental organizations. The Task Groups will be supported by a number of subgroups focused on specific topic areas, many of which will be cross-cutting among the Task Groups. In addition, significant contractor support may be needed.

(A chart of the proposed study organization and rosters of the NPC Committee on Global Oil and Gas and its Coordinating Subcommittee can be viewed here.)

STUDY TIMETABLE

The timetable for the study envisions the completion of the analyses and the preparation of a draft report for the Council’s consideration within one year.  Additional time may be required for final documentation and communication of the report.

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