Energy Outlook

One Year Later: An Update on Facing the Hard Truths
about Energy
(2008)

The NPC’s 2007 report, Facing the Hard Truths about Energy, received unprecedented interest in the U.S. and abroad. Much happened in the energy sector in the year following the report’s release, including significant volatility in oil and natural gas prices and an increased focus on energy policy. As a result of these events and in response to Secretary Bodman’s expressed interest, the NPC undertook this update. Key participants in the 2007 study examined feedback received on the report and the implications of recent energy outlooks and events on the report’s findings and recommendations. The results were released as a slide presentation.

The One Year Later Update slide presentation is available for viewing and downloading at no charge, along with the original 2007 report and supporting materials.


Facing Hard Truths cover

Facing the Hard Truths about Energy –
A Comprehensive View to 2030 of Global Oil and Natural Gas
(2007)

The American people are very concerned about energy—its availability, reliability, cost, and environmental impact. Energy also has become a subject of urgent policy discussions. But energy is a complex subject, touching every part of daily life and the overall economy, involving a wide variety of technologies, and deeply affecting many aspects of our foreign relations. The United States is the largest participant in the global energy system—the largest consumer, the second largest producer of coal and natural gas, and the largest importer and third largest producer of oil. Developing a framework for considering America’s oil and natural gas position now and for the future requires a broad view and a long-term perspective; both are provided in this study, which was prepared in response to a request from the Secretary of Energy.

The complexity of today’s integrated energy markets and the urgency surrounding today’s energy issues demanded a study that included:

  • An integrated view of supply, demand, infrastructure, technology, and geopolitics
  • A comprehensive review of public and aggregated proprietary energy outlooks
  • In-depth analysis of technology trends and opportunities
  • Policy options viewed through economic, security, and environmental lenses
  • More than 350 participants from diverse backgrounds and organizations
  • Dialogue with more than 1,000 persons and groups actively involved in energy.

The NPC is making the study results and many of the documents developed by the study groups available to all interested parties as follows:

  • Executive Summary provides insights on energy market dynamics as well as advice on an integrated set of actions needed immediately to ensure adequate and reliable supplies of energy, while assuring continued expansion of prosperity including economic growth, global security, and environmental responsibility.
  • Report Chapters contain summary results of the analyses conducted by the Demand, Supply, Technology, and Geopolitics & Policy Task Groups; a discussion on Carbon Management; a full listing of the study’s recommendations; and a description of the study’s methodology. These chapters provide supporting data and analyses for the findings and recommendations presented in the Executive Summary.
  • Appendices contain Council and study group rosters, description of the study’s outreach process, and other information.
  • CD provides the full report and additional documentation including Data Warehouse files and Topic Papers. The Topic Papers are detailed, specific subject matter papers and reports prepared by the Task Groups and their Subgroups. These Topic Papers formed the basis for the analyses that led to development of the summary results presented in the report’s Executive Summary and Chapters. The Council believes that these materials will be of interest to the readers of the report and will help them better understand the results.

Full report plus CD
(388 pages) Price: $40.00

CD only
Price: $12.50

The Executive Summary of the study is available in six languages. These translations also contain the Preface and an Outline of the Full Report.

Arabic translation
(40 pages) Price: $10.00

Chinese translation
(40 pages) Price: $10.00

French translation
(40 pages) Price: $10.00

Japanese translation
(40 pages) Price: $10.00

Russian translation
(44 pages) Price: $10.00

Spanish translation
(48 pages) Price: $10.00

Click here to view, download and/or purchase the report and related materials.


Issues for Interagency Consideration:
A Supplement to the NPC’s Report:
Future Issues – A View of U.S. Oil –
Natural Gas to 2020
(1996)

This supplemental report presents a prioritized list of 18 policy or regulatory issues that significantly affect industry competitiveness and require coordinated consideration or action by government. This supplement was prepared specifically for the use of an Interagency Working Group that the Secretary of Energy established in response to a recommendation in the NPC’s 1995 Future Issues report. The NPC’s prioritized list of oil and gas issues was developed through a poll of its membership. The supplement provides descriptions of the issues and details of the process used in their prioritization.

(50 pages) Price: $5.00

Click here to view/download a .pdf of the report (4.6 MB).


Future Issues A View of U.S. Oil
Natural Gas to 2020
(1995)

This report makes specific recommendations on policy and regulatory actions as well as industry and government leadership steps to address future issues. The report analyzes the oil and gas industry’s role in the nation’s economy, identifies the issues and policies that will most likely shape the industry over the next 25 years, and provides approaches to resolution of these issues. A broad range of stakeholder views was considered in the development of this report. About 100 thought leaders from both inside and outside the industry participated in a series of structured interviews and workshops conducted for the study. Participants represented a diverse set of parties including public interest and environmental organizations; industry observers, analysts, and customers; government policymakers and regulators; as well as all segments of the oil and gas industry.

The NPC retained two contractors to provide support to the study. Charles River Associates Incorporated assisted in analyzing the role of the oil and gas industry in the economy. Arthur D. Little, Inc. assisted in identifying future issues. The report is available in two versions:

Full report
(200 pages) Price: $30.00

Click here to view/download a .pdf of the report (24.3 MB).

Abridged Edition
(Does not include contractor reports)
(50 pages) Price: $15.00

Click here to view/download a .pdf of the abridged report (2.7 MB).


Factors Affecting U.S. Oil & Gas Outlook (1987)

The report analyzes the factors affecting the nation’s future supply of and demand for oil and natural gas and provides a historical perspective of the 1970s energy crises, their economic impacts, and the appropriateness of the U.S. policy responses. A discussion of various government policy options available for avoiding or mitigating U.S. vulnerability to future energy crises is also presented. Advantages and disadvantages of the major options are outlined. The report includes the results of economic model analyses of the 1970s energy crises and the 1986 price declines as well as survey data illustrating the sensitivity of supply, demand, and future drilling activity levels to oil prices to the year 2000.

(250 pages) Price: $35.00

Click here to view/download a .pdf of the report (10.2 MB).


U.S. Oil & Gas Outlook – Interim Report (1986)

In September 1985, the Secretary of Energy requested that the NPC undertake a study to examine the factors affecting the nation's future supply of and demand for oil and natural gas. The Secretary's letter also requested that the study examine the factors that precipitated the 1970s energy crises, their financial impact on the nation's economy, the appropriateness of government's response, and the potential for the recurrence of such crises. In addition, the Council was asked to advise on how the vulnerability to future energy crises can be avoided or mitigated. The Committee felt it imperative that an interim report should be developed and published no later than October 1986, focusing on the recent severe drop in oil prices and its impact on the oil and gas business—and in turn on the economic and strategic security of the United States. The study's final report was published in early 1987.

(64 pages) Price: TBA

Click here to view/download a .pdf of the report (3 MB).


updated 9/23/14

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

.